Predict.fun settlement audit,
recomputed from the archive.
Since 2026-09-30: 11,520 markets recomputed, none disagree with the official outcome.
Each Predict.fun crypto Up/Down market in the shipped archive, settled again from the price stream it names and compared with the outcome its published start and end prices imply. Three results, counted over all of them: agrees, disagrees, or cannot be settled from the archive — with the reason. Not a sample, and not only the markets that check out.
Markets that closed on the last 10 archived UTC days, 2026-09-30 to 2026-10-09. Of the markets the archive can settle, 100% agree.
Not settleable means a second the verdict needs is not in the archive — an upstream stream gap, an early market without a strike, or an outcome not yet published. It does not mean a value disagrees: disagreements are counted on their own.
Not in this audit: 750 markets that settle on a Binance price, which the archive does not collect.
How each market is checked
- Predict.fun publishes a start and an end price for each market, and the outcome follows from them: Up when the end is higher, Down when it is lower, a tie when they are equal.
- We take the same two prices from the Chainlink stream Predict.fun forwards, at the exact opening and closing seconds, and compare them at the precision Predict.fun publishes. A missing boundary second is listed as not settleable, never filled in from neighbouring ticks.
- Markets whose price source is Binance rather than Chainlink are listed as not settleable: that price is not in the archive.
- Whether a market has settled is read from its end price, not from its status field, which can lag behind it.
The rule, the files and a script to run it yourself: How a market settles →
Why some markets cannot be settled from the archive
Every market in the audit that is not counted as agreeing or disagreeing is here, grouped by cause.| Why | Last 30 days | All history | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Upstream stream gap | 192 · 1.7% | 192 · 1.7% | The settlement stream stopped publishing around the market’s opening or closing second, so the second the verdict needs is not in the archive. Nothing is filled in from neighbouring ticks. |
| Outcome not yet published | 3 · 0.026% | 3 · 0.026% | The archived market record has no official outcome yet. |
Not in this audit: 750 markets that settle on a Binance price, which the archive does not collect.
Each reason, all history
| 96 · 0.8% | The settlement stream was flowing, but its report for the closing second is not in the archive. |
| 96 · 0.8% | The settlement stream was flowing, but its report for the opening second is not in the archive. |
| 3 · 0.026% | The archived market record has no start or end price yet. |
Every disagreement
Listed as recomputed.No disagreements in the audited days.
Since the archive began
All 10 audited days since 2026-09-30, month by month.| Month | Markets | Agree | Disagree | Not settleable |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All history | 11,520 | 11,325 · 98.3% | 0 | 195 · 1.7% |
| 2026-10 | 10,368 | 10,197 · 98.4% | 0 | 171 · 1.6% |
| 2026-09 | 1,152 | 1,128 · 97.9% | 0 | 24 · 2.1% |
By asset and market period
| Market | Markets | Agree | Disagree | Not settleable |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BNB 5m | 2,880 | 2,833 · 98.4% | 0 | 47 |
| BNB 15m | 960 | 942 · 98.1% | 0 | 18 |
| BTC 5m | 2,880 | 2,833 · 98.4% | 0 | 47 |
| BTC 15m | 960 | 942 · 98.1% | 0 | 18 |
| ETH 5m | 2,880 | 2,833 · 98.4% | 0 | 47 |
| ETH 15m | 960 | 942 · 98.1% | 0 | 18 |
By day
Each day’s file lists every market with its verdict and the boundary ticks it rests on.| Day (UTC) | Markets | Agree | Disagree | Not settleable | Verdicts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-09 | 1,152 | 1,146 | 0 | 6 | JSON |
| 2026-10-08 | 1,152 | 1,116 | 0 | 36 | JSON |
| 2026-10-07 | 1,152 | 1,128 | 0 | 24 | JSON |
| 2026-10-06 | 1,152 | 1,122 | 0 | 30 | JSON |
| 2026-10-05 | 1,152 | 1,146 | 0 | 6 | JSON |
| 2026-10-04 | 1,152 | 1,116 | 0 | 36 | JSON |
| 2026-10-03 | 1,152 | 1,134 | 0 | 18 | JSON |
| 2026-10-02 | 1,152 | 1,149 | 0 | 3 | JSON |
| 2026-10-01 | 1,152 | 1,140 | 0 | 12 | JSON |
| 2026-09-30 | 1,152 | 1,128 | 0 | 24 | JSON |
What this covers
Predict.fun crypto Up/Down markets only. Polymarket has an audit of its own: Polymarket settlement audit →