// SETTLEMENT AUDIT — POLYMARKET
Polymarket settlement audit,
recomputed from the archive.
Since 2026-06-08: 333,238 markets recomputed, 4 disagree with the official outcome.
Each Polymarket crypto Up/Down market in the shipped archive, settled again from the Chainlink stream it names and compared with the official outcome. Three results, counted over all of them: agrees, disagrees, or cannot be settled from the archive — with the reason. Not a sample, and not only the markets that check out.
Last 30 days · markets audited80,626
agree with the official outcome77,85096.6%
disagree00%
cannot be settled from the archive2,7763.4%
Markets that closed on the last 30 archived UTC days, 2026-09-10 to 2026-10-09. Of the markets the archive can settle, 100% agree.
Not settleable means a second the verdict needs is not in the archive — an upstream stream gap, an early market without a strike, or an outcome not yet published. It does not mean a value disagrees: disagreements are counted on their own.
How each market is checked
- The rule comes from the market itself: its configuration names the settlement stream and lookback, so nothing is inferred from the date.
- The verdict needs the stream’s report at the exact boundary seconds. When a boundary second is missing from the archive, the market is listed as not settleable rather than filled in from neighbouring ticks.
- Up wins when the closing value is greater than or equal to the strike (the opening value), compared as fixed-point integers.
- Markets whose window has no archived TWAP stream (the first day of the TWAP rule) are approximated from the instantaneous stream and marked approx.
The rule, the files and a script to run it yourself: How a market settles →
Why some markets cannot be settled from the archive
Every market in the audit that is not counted as agreeing or disagreeing is here, grouped by cause.| Why | Last 30 days | All history | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Upstream stream gap | 2,776 · 3.4% | 24,133 · 7.2% | The settlement stream stopped publishing around the market’s opening or closing second, so the second the verdict needs is not in the archive. Nothing is filled in from neighbouring ticks. |
| Early market without a strike | 0 · 0% | 9,629 · 2.9% | Markets from the first weeks of the archive whose strike could not be established at the time. |
| Outcome not yet published | 0 · 0% | 16 · 0.0048% | The archived market record has no official outcome yet. |
| Other | 0 · 0% | 37 · 0.011% | Too close to call under the approximation, a value that could not be read, or a settlement configuration we do not collect. |
Each reason, all history
| 12,193 · 3.7% | The settlement stream was flowing, but its report for the closing second is not in the archive. |
| 9,629 · 2.9% | The archived market has no strike (instantaneous-rule markets). |
| 9,124 · 2.7% | The settlement stream was flowing, but its report for the opening second is not in the archive. |
| 2,816 · 0.8% | No settlement-stream reports at all around the market’s window. |
| 37 · 0.011% | Approximated (no TWAP archive) and too close to call within the approximation’s error. |
| 16 · 0.0048% | No official outcome yet in the archived market record (resolved after the day shipped, or an incomplete outcome pair). |
Every disagreement
Listed as recomputed, with how long after the close the official outcome was set.| Day | Market | Official | Recomputed | Resolved after close |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-17 | hype-updown-5m-1786968300 | UP | DOWN | 65 min |
| 2026-08-17 | doge-updown-5m-1786969200 | UP | DOWN | 50 min |
| 2026-08-17 | sol-updown-5m-1786969200 | DOWN | UP | 50 min |
| 2026-08-17 | doge-updown-5m-1786970400 | UP | DOWN | 31 min |
Since the archive began
All 124 audited days since 2026-06-08, month by month.| Month | Markets | Agree | Disagree | Not settleable |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All history | 333,238 | 299,419 · 89.9% | 4 | 33,815 · 10.1% |
| 2026-10 | 24,192 | 23,483 · 97.1% | 0 | 709 · 2.9% |
| 2026-09 | 80,617 | 75,993 · 94.3% | 0 | 4,624 · 5.7% |
| 2026-08 | 83,328 | 68,983 · 82.8% | 4 | 14,341 · 17.2% |
| 2026-07 | 83,322 | 74,488 · 89.4% | 0 | 8,834 · 10.6% |
| 2026-06 | 61,779 | 56,472 · 91.4% | 0 | 5,307 · 8.6% |
By asset and market period
| Market | Markets | Agree | Disagree | Not settleable |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BNB 5m | 35,702 | 32,088 · 89.9% | 0 | 3,614 |
| BNB 15m | 11,903 | 10,695 · 89.9% | 0 | 1,208 |
| BTC 5m | 35,703 | 32,084 · 89.9% | 0 | 3,619 |
| BTC 15m | 11,903 | 10,701 · 89.9% | 0 | 1,202 |
| DOGE 5m | 35,700 | 32,075 · 89.8% | 2 | 3,623 |
| DOGE 15m | 11,904 | 10,696 · 89.9% | 0 | 1,208 |
| ETH 5m | 35,703 | 32,075 · 89.8% | 0 | 3,628 |
| ETH 15m | 11,902 | 10,693 · 89.8% | 0 | 1,209 |
| HYPE 5m | 35,705 | 32,074 · 89.8% | 1 | 3,630 |
| HYPE 15m | 11,903 | 10,697 · 89.9% | 0 | 1,206 |
| SOL 5m | 35,703 | 32,083 · 89.9% | 1 | 3,619 |
| SOL 15m | 11,903 | 10,693 · 89.8% | 0 | 1,210 |
| XRP 5m | 35,701 | 32,069 · 89.8% | 0 | 3,632 |
| XRP 15m | 11,903 | 10,696 · 89.9% | 0 | 1,207 |
By day
Each day’s file lists every market with its verdict and the boundary ticks it rests on.| Day (UTC) | Markets | Agree | Disagree | Not settleable | Verdicts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-09 | 2,688 | 2,632 | 0 | 56 | JSON |
| 2026-10-08 | 2,688 | 2,600 | 0 | 88 | JSON |
| 2026-10-07 | 2,688 | 2,562 | 0 | 126 | JSON |
| 2026-10-06 | 2,688 | 2,564 | 0 | 124 | JSON |
| 2026-10-05 | 2,688 | 2,632 | 0 | 56 | JSON |
| 2026-10-04 | 2,688 | 2,590 | 0 | 98 | JSON |
| 2026-10-03 | 2,688 | 2,611 | 0 | 77 | JSON |
| 2026-10-02 | 2,688 | 2,674 | 0 | 14 | JSON |
| 2026-10-01 | 2,688 | 2,618 | 0 | 70 | JSON |
| 2026-09-30 | 2,688 | 2,618 | 0 | 70 | JSON |
| 2026-09-29 | 2,688 | 2,646 | 0 | 42 | JSON |
| 2026-09-28 | 2,688 | 2,562 | 0 | 126 | JSON |
| 2026-09-27 | 2,688 | 2,660 | 0 | 28 | JSON |
| 2026-09-26 | 2,688 | 2,660 | 0 | 28 | JSON |
page 1 of 9
What this covers
Polymarket crypto Up/Down markets only. Predict.fun has an audit of its own: Predict.fun settlement audit →